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It was a nightmare before and after Christmas for Manchester United and their new boss Ruben Amorim, but their hopes of starting 2025 on the right foot are severely hampered by a daunting trip to Anfield for a game first of the year.
Premier League leaders Liverpool go into the weekend six points clear at the summit, and it would take a miracle for them not to go on to win the title from here.
United, their arch-rivals, would of course want to have something to say about that in an ideal world, but the Red Devils drop to 14th place after losing 2-0 at home to Newcastle United on Monday.
Using the best Opta facts, we preview Sunday’s top Premier League fixture.
What is expected?
The Opta supercomputer is firmly backing Liverpool, who have a whopping 70.2% chance of victory in this game.
On the other hand, United came out on top in just 13% of simulations guided by data from supercomputer Opta, while the probability of a draw was 16.8%.
Given Liverpool’s recent dominance in this game, it’s no surprise that the model predicts a win for the Reds.
United have scored just one goal in their last eight Premier League away games against Liverpool, failing to score in each of the last five. Only at Everton have they had a longer run without scoring in their league history (six between 1969 and 1974).
The Red Devils have not won any of their last eight away league games against Liverpool (D4 L4), their longest such run since a run of nine between 1970 and 1979.
Meanwhile, Liverpool have lost just one of their last 13 Premier League games against United (W7 D5), going down 2-1 at Old Trafford in August 2022.
Following the Reds’ 3-0 win at Old Trafford in the reverse fixture in September, Arne Slot could become the second Liverpool boss to do the league double over United in his first season at the club, after George Kay in 1936-37, and if the form guide is anything to go by, then you’d expect that to be the case.
Reds led by Salah rampaging for glory?
It has been quite a season so far for Liverpool, and their talisman Mohamed Salah.
Despite the uncertainty surrounding his future, Salah is arguably in the form of his career. He had a hand in 39 Premier League goals across 2024, scoring 23 and assisting 16. In a calendar year, only Salah himself has registered more goal involvements in the history of the competition (2018 – 28 goals, 12 assists).
Only Trent Alexander-Arnold, meanwhile, has provided more Premier League assists (17 in 2019) for Liverpool in a calendar year than Salah’s 16 in 2024.
Salah has been involved in 30 goals in the Premier League this season (17 goals, 13 assists), scoring and assisting in eight different games, which is already the most ever by a player in a single campaign. This is the fifth time he has had 30+ goals in a season (also 2017-18, 2018-19, 2021-22 and 2022-23), the joint-most of any player in Premier League history along with Alan Shearer.
It’s not just Salah who shines for Liverpool. Luis Diaz and Cody Gakpo are at the top, with Diogo Jota also scoring in the 5-0 win against West Ham last time out. Alexander-Arnold has made headlines this week amid speculation about an impending move to Real Madrid, but he is another player who thrives in the Slot machine.
Liverpool scored the most goals in the Premier League in 2024 (92) – their second most in a year in the top flight, behind the 106 they netted in 1982. The Reds also had 286 shots on target, the most equal by a team in a year, alongside Manchester City in 2021, since Opta started recording such data in 2004.
The Reds come into this having won their last three games in the Premier League, scoring at least three goals in each win.
They last had a longer winning streak when they scored three or more goals in each win in February/March 2014 (six in a row). During their six league games last month they were seen to score 21 times, three more than any other team in the competition.
Things can get better… can’t they?
Amorim said he wanted to “shock” his United players by mentioning that they could be in a relegation battle if they are not careful.
In Premier League history, four teams that were 14th at the turn of the year have subsequently been relegated – Newcastle (2008-09), Burnley (2009-10), Norwich City (2013-14) and Leeds United (2022- 23).
United lost six games in all competitions last month. That is the most games they have lost in one month since they suffered seven defeats back in September 1930.
The Red Devils have lost their last three games in the Premier League. They have not lost four league games in a row in the same season since December to February 1979, while they last suffered four consecutive defeats without scoring back in April 1909.
United must tighten up at the back if they are to get anything out of this one. They shipped 18 goals in all competitions in December, their most in a single month since March 1964 (18).
One possible good sign for United is that Liverpool – who beat Newcastle 4-2 in their first game of 2024 – have not won their opening league game in consecutive years since doing so in 2013 and 2014.
Despite Amorim’s warnings, supercomputer Opta predicts United will at least secure mid-table mediocrity and avoid relegation trouble. They only have a 0.1% chance of going down as it is.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Liverpool – Mohamed Salah
Salah has both scored more goals (12) and provided more assists (six) against United than any other player in Premier League history.
He contributed to 14 Premier League goals last month, more than any other player in the competition.
Manchester United – Bruno Fernandes
United were without their captain Fernandes for their loss to Newcastle, as the Portugal international served his suspension following his sacking at Wolves.
The Red Devils have failed to score a single goal in any of the last four Premier League games in which Fernandes has not played.
