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Anyone who assumed anything regarding the Scotland national team down the years tends to quickly learn the error of their ways.
Facing a Greece side which has already been eliminated from the World Cup to set up a winner-takes-all clash with Denmark on Tuesday is a scenario every member of the Tartan Army would have readily accepted at the outset of this campaign.
But we should know better than to confuse a golden opportunity with a shoo-in. There’s plenty of danger lurking tomorrow night in Piraeus. Beware of the side that’s been unshackled from pressure.
Prior to Steve Clarke ending a generational wait for Scotland to qualify for a major tournament by reaching Euro 2020, the nearest miss was the ill-fated attempt to reach Euro 2008 under Alex McLeish.
Drawn in a group containing the 2006 World Cup finalists Italy and France as well as Ukraine, that squad performed admirably, famously beating the French home and away.
Steve Clarke must ensure there is none of the timidity that has sometimes cost Scotland
Scotland are better when Scott McTominay is bursting into the opponents’ penalty area
Striker Che Adams has earned the right to be Scotland’s focal point in the game against Greece
The abiding memory is one of injustice – Christian Panucci’s injury-time winner for Italy at Hampden coming from a foul Alan Hutton did not commit.
The reality is that McLeish’s men sealed their own fate in that campaign, losing in Tbilisi a month earlier to a Georgia side who were already out of the running and were playing a 17-year-old debutant in Giorgi Makaridze in goal.
Many players and managers have come and gone. There remains a nagging sense that Scotland are vulnerable in situations where an opponent is apparently floundering.
In that regard, it was a little concerning to hear Clarke entertain the possibility of reverting to a back five for this vital game when he announced his squad.
While a draw is as good as a win for the Scots (assuming Denmark beat Belarus) loading the sandbags and playing for a point would be a dangerous game.
As the author Norman Vincent Peale put it: ‘Shoot for the moon. Even if you miss, you’ll land among the stars.’ In other words, go for the victory. If you do so, the chances are that you won’t lose.
A positive mindset needs a positive formation. The 4-2-3-1 template has served Clarke pretty well in the last year.
Reverting to a defensive five would only bring flashbacks of how poorly it performed in last year’s Euros. While Kieran Tierney is available, Clarke no longer needs to shoehorn him and Andy Robertson into the team.
Billy Gilmour’s absence should see Ryan Christie drop back to play in the No. 6 role where he performed so well for Bournemouth alongside Lewis Ferguson.
Scotland are better when the bounding stride of Scott McTominay is taking him into the opposing box. If the Napoli man is supported by John McGinn and Ben Gannon-Doak, Clarke’s side will carry a threat.
With two goals against Belarus to his name, Che Adams has earned the right to start ahead of Lyndon Dykes, but it will be a job for 16 men.
Clarke’s main failing in his six years in charge has been the timidity the side has shown when they’ve reached the big stage.
How encouraging it would be to see them take a huge step towards a third tournament by seizing the initiative.
