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Manchester United’s relegation chances have been revealed by stats boffins after their 2-0 defeat by Newcastle left them facing a shock relegation.
United are 14th in the Premier League and just seven points above the bottom three, leaving Ruben Amorim to admit they are fighting for their top flight credentials.
The defeat at Old Trafford, which came after goals from Alexander Isak and Joelinton, was the club’s fourth in a row in all competitions and Amorim’s fifth defeat in his first eight league games – the worst start for a United manager in 103 years.
Holding a total of just 22 points at the halfway mark, the relegated heavyweights have been dragged closer to the dreaded dotted line and Ipswich’s 2-0 win over Chelsea at Portman Road narrowed the gap before United’s trip to Liverpool.
Now, the club’s chances of relegation to the Championship have been ignored.
According to Opta’s supercomputer, however, there is a silver lining with United facing just a 0.1 per cent chance of being relegated to 18th place. Meanwhile, there’s a zero percent chance they’ll finish 19th or rock bottom.
The algorithm has come up with a 0.6 percent chance for a 17th place finish while even 16th is considered an outside shot at 3.1 percent.
Twelfth place is United’s most likely position at the end of the season, with a probability of 15.1 per cent, with a chance of 13.9 per cent in 13th.
Damningly, the club’s hopes of reaching 10th place, and therefore the top half of the table, stand at 10.6 per cent. A top four finish is a 0.3 per cent possibility.
Amorim has accepted responsibility for his side’s dire form, saying: ‘My fault too. I believe the team is not improving. It’s a little lost in this moment. It’s a bit embarrassing to be the coach of Manchester United and miss a lot of games.
‘But we have to cope with difficult times in everyone’s life.’
Asked if United were in danger of the drop, Amorim added: “That’s very clear, so we have to fight. It’s a really difficult moment, one of the most difficult moments in Manchester United’s history and we have to deal with it honestly.
‘I am responsible. I don’t like to get here and make excuses. I think people are tired of excuses in this club. I think our club needs a shock and we have to understand that. It’s a very difficult moment and we have to fight for the next game.’
Club hero Gary Neville also fears a relegation slog.
‘He (Amorim) was determined not to change but he must be suffering deep inside,’ said Neville, speaking on Sky Sports. I’m worried too. It was really serious. That first half hour was hard to watch as a United fan.
‘There is no doubt: performances and results have worsened in recent weeks. They find it very difficult, some of the players with the system, they find it very difficult with the confidence.
‘The concern is that they are being dragged into a battle down there near the bottom.
‘I think they have a lot to do and that’s being very, very kind. I don’t think this group of players is of the quality that (Erik) Deg Hag has had, Ole (Gunnar Solskjaer) has had, Jose Mourinho or Louis van Gaal.
‘They weren’t good enough for Manchester United in those days but they were better teams and better squads than they are now.’
